Will your listing be affected by mortgage rates?

Most of us know that, when you are considering that listing in Breckenridge, or elsewhere in Summit County, you have to consider several factors.  Assuming you've already gotten past the decision that here is where you want to be, and also assuming you need to finance the purchase, loan rates might come in a close second or third. 

So, it's fairly easy to understand that low mortgage rates help take the bite out of payments, and can even allow you to purchase more, or just make a purchase.  In the big picture, that means more buyers, less inventory, and gives sellers the understanding that they can charge more.  So, what happens when rates go up? 

You might assume the reverse of the above scenario, and given some time lag with a continuing rise, you would be right.  So, it's important to take a look at what is happening with rates at any given time.  So, since we have had an uptick in rates in the last week, let's see why.  I am borrowing from our good friend, Wendy Paulus with Cherry Creek Mortgage for the following analysis: 

"THE ECB...A SCARY TEST YOU MIGHT BE GIVEN AFTER HAVING CHEST PAINS? Not so. It's the European equivalent of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB). But speaking of pains, Bond pricing and home loan rates worsened by about .125% over the past week after the ECB hiked their version of the Fed Funds Rate higher...and there is talk that the Japanese may follow suit. Whoa...hold on there sport, what on earth does a rate decision in Europe possibly have to do with home loan rates here in the US? Let's take a closer look.

Let's say you are a savvy investor in Europe...you can see that yields in the US have been significantly higher than what you can gain as a return on a similar investment in Europe, Asia, or most other parts of the world. So our smart European investor sees that it makes sense to put their money in the US, in the form of buying Bonds, guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. In recent times, as much as 65% of our Bonds have been purchased by similar smart foreign investors seeking higher rates of return than they can gain in their own country or elsewhere. This foreign buying has helped our Bond prices stay high, which in turn, has kept home loan rates very attractive.

Back to our wise European investor...who hears on Thursday that the European Central Bank is hiking rates higher, much like our own Fed has done with fourteen hikes over the past year plus. Just like our Fed moves rates in cycles, it's never one and done, so goes the European Central Bank as well. Savvy European investor notes that with rates on the increase at home...but the US Fed likely winding down the "hike cycle"...it might make sense to start keeping some money invested a bit closer to home instead of in the US. So before you know it - badda-bing-badda-boom - foreign investors stop buying as many of our US Bonds, sending Bond prices lower and home loan rates higher. And just the initial fear of this happening sent Bonds plunging lower this week, causing home loan rates to bump up a notch. Imagine that.